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The Australian Treasury’s latest 40-year economic outlook has formally identified artificial intelligence as one of the five cornerstone transitions set to redefine the national economy, yet the document notably excludes any substantive mention of cryptocurrency or blockchain technology. The Intergenerational Report (IGR), a comprehensive document released every few years to project the nation’s fiscal and economic trajectory over four decades, positions AI as a critical lever for productivity. However, the omission of digital assets has sparked a debate among industry leaders regarding the completeness of the government’s long-term financial vision, particularly concerning the infrastructure required to support an increasingly automated economy.
The IGR serves as a primary blueprint for successive governments, detailing how shifting demographics, technological advancements, and global trends will influence the standard of living and budgetary health of the nation. In this latest iteration, the Treasury identifies five "mega-trends" or transitions: the rise of artificial intelligence, intensifying geopolitical conflicts, an aging population, the global shift toward clean energy, and a domestic industrial transformation toward a service-based economy. While the report offers a deep dive into how AI might mitigate the productivity slowdown associated with an aging workforce, the absence of digital assets—which many argue are the necessary "rails" for AI-driven commerce—has become a focal point for fintech advocates.
The Five Pillars of Australia’s Economic Future
The Treasury’s report frames the next 40 years as a period of significant structural change. To understand the context of the AI inclusion and the crypto omission, it is necessary to examine the five transitions the government has prioritized.
First, the aging population remains a primary fiscal challenge. As the dependency ratio shifts, with fewer working-age Australians supporting a larger cohort of retirees, the tax base is expected to come under immense pressure. This demographic shift necessitates a massive increase in productivity to maintain current standards of living. Second, the transition to net-zero emissions is described as an industrial revolution in its own right, requiring billions in investment to transform Australia into a renewable energy superpower. Third, the shift toward a service-oriented economy reflects the changing nature of consumer demand and labor. Fourth, geopolitical fragmentation is noted as a risk to trade and global stability, forcing Australia to rethink its supply chains and strategic alliances.
The fifth transition—and perhaps the most transformative—is the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence. The IGR describes "agentic AI" systems as having become significantly more capable and autonomous. The report notes that AI is now surpassing human-level performance on various benchmarks, suggesting that its integration into the economy is no longer a matter of "if" but "how fast." The Treasury posits that AI will be the primary driver of productivity growth, helping to offset the economic drag caused by the aging population.
Industry Reaction: The Missing Financial Infrastructure
Despite the enthusiastic embrace of AI within the IGR, the digital asset sector has expressed concern over the "blind spot" regarding blockchain and tokenization. John O’Loghlen, the Country Director for Coinbase Australia, noted that while the report correctly identifies the importance of technology for future prosperity, it fails to account for the financial architecture that autonomous AI agents will require.
"The Intergenerational Report makes it clear that Australia’s prosperity over the next 40 years will depend heavily on our ability to adopt new technology and lift productivity," O’Loghlen stated. "And while the report focuses heavily on artificial intelligence, it completely misses the financial infrastructure those agents will need."
The argument from the fintech sector is that as AI systems become more autonomous—engaging in machine-to-machine (M2M) transactions without human intervention—traditional banking systems may prove inadequate. These "agentic" systems require real-time, 24/7, programmable, and interoperable payment rails. Proponents of digital assets argue that stablecoins and tokenized deposits are the natural solution for this need, providing the "programmable money" that matches the "programmable logic" of AI.
The Chronology of Digital Asset Policy in Australia
The omission in the IGR stands in contrast to other recent movements within the Australian government and regulatory bodies. The timeline of Australia’s engagement with digital assets reveals a complex, and at times contradictory, approach to the sector.
In 2021, the Senate Select Committee on Australia as a Technology and Financial Centre, chaired by Senator Andrew Bragg, released a landmark report recommending a comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto-assets. This was followed by the Treasury’s "Token Mapping" exercise in early 2023, which sought to categorize various types of digital assets to determine how they should be regulated under existing or new laws.
In early 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased its focus on tokenized finance. Collaborating with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre (DFCRC), the RBA explored the potential for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and the tokenization of financial assets. The DFCRC estimated that innovations in digital finance could generate as much as 24 billion Australian dollars ($17.1 billion) in annual economic gains for the country.
Furthermore, on September 3, just days after the IGR’s release, the Treasury published a separate document titled the "Financial Innovation Strategy." Unlike the IGR, this strategy explicitly addresses the intersection of AI and financial infrastructure. It acknowledges that agentic systems could lead to a surge in automated transactions, thereby creating a demand for more sophisticated, interoperable payment systems. The discrepancy between the long-term IGR and the immediate Financial Innovation Strategy suggests a lack of alignment in how different departments view the permanence and importance of digital asset technology.
Data and Economic Projections: The Productivity Gap
The IGR’s focus on AI is driven by a sobering reality: Australia’s productivity growth has slowed significantly over the last decade. Historically, productivity growth has been the engine of income growth and improved living standards. The Treasury estimates that if productivity growth remains at the sluggish levels seen recently, the Australian economy will struggle to meet the rising costs of healthcare and aged care.
By identifying AI as a major transition, the government is signaling that it views automation as the primary solution to this "productivity gap." However, industry analysts suggest that the gains from AI may be capped if the underlying financial systems remain tethered to legacy infrastructure. The $24 billion annual gain projected by the DFCRC is predicated on the efficiency of tokenized markets—where settlement is instantaneous and administrative overhead is minimized. Without including these factors in the 40-year outlook, critics argue the IGR may be underestimating both the potential gains and the necessary investments required for the next four decades.
Regulatory Progress and the Path Forward
While the IGR may have omitted crypto, the Australian regulatory landscape is not stagnant. The government has made strides in establishing a "Digital Asset Platform" framework, which aims to provide clarity for exchanges and custody providers. This framework is seen as a necessary step toward mainstreaming digital assets and protecting consumers.
However, the industry is now calling for a more specific focus on two areas: stablecoins and tokenized markets. Stablecoins, which are pegged to the value of a fiat currency like the Australian dollar, are viewed as the most likely medium for AI-to-AI transactions. Tokenized markets, which involve representing real-world assets (such as real estate or bonds) on a blockchain, could unlock liquidity and democratize access to investment.
"The opportunity now is to bring the same focus to the tokenized stored-value facility framework for stablecoins, and clear rules for tokenized markets," O’Loghlen added. "Those are the rails digital finance—agentic finance included—will run on, and getting them right is how Australia turns this opportunity into reality."
Broader Implications for Australia’s Global Standing
The exclusion of digital assets from the IGR also has implications for Australia’s competitiveness on the global stage. Other jurisdictions, including the European Union with its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, Singapore, and Hong Kong, have moved aggressively to create comprehensive legal frameworks for digital assets. These regions are positioning themselves as hubs for the "Web3" economy, attracting capital and talent.
By focusing almost exclusively on AI while sidelining the blockchain infrastructure that often accompanies it, Australia risks a fragmented approach to the digital economy. The IGR is intended to be a visionary document; by leaving out the evolution of money and value transfer, it may be providing an incomplete map for future policy makers.
As the Australian Treasury continues to refine its Financial Innovation Strategy, the pressure will likely mount to reconcile the 40-year projections of the IGR with the immediate technological realities of the digital asset sector. The integration of AI into the economy is a certainty, but the nature of the financial systems that will support this integration remains a critical, albeit currently unaddressed, question in the nation’s long-term economic planning.
In conclusion, the Intergenerational Report’s recognition of AI marks a significant step in acknowledging the technological forces that will shape Australia’s future. However, the "crypto-shaped hole" in the report suggests that the conversation regarding the future of Australian finance is far from over. For the projected productivity gains of AI to be fully realized, the government may eventually need to bridge the gap between its enthusiasm for autonomous intelligence and its caution toward the digital financial infrastructure that supports it.
